Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x654f…5b8c crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%72W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.4%
all 80 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.83 per $1 lost it wins $25.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses72 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage277d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1,009 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 27 $2,051 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 26 $1,010 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,576 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,010 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 15? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 19? Nov 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 18? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 29-October 5? Oct 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October Oct 03 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on Septembe Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.30 in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September? Oct 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on Septembe Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $185 in September? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? Oct 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $180 in September? Oct 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 30? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Oct 01 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 29 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 22-28? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 22-28? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 22-28? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $966 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $736 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,010 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $129 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $342 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $18 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $79 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $567 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $857 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $355 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records