Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x654e…e052 crypto 529 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate63%333W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$27
14 days+$30
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 6% -8.9%
≤30d 468 -11.8% -20.2% 67% 28% -10.4%
≤90d 529 -13.3% -21.5% 63% 27% -11.3%
all 529 -13.3% -21.5% 63% 27% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 27% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 22% -19.8%
15% -35.9% 19% -27.6%
20% -42.2% 16% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses333 / 196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)529 / 529
History coverage35d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 529 Trades
no open positions (185 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$27 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1140 history records