Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x654e…9f51 politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 72 -0.4% -9.9% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage630d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 24 $49 $0 +1%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jim O'Callaghan be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $49 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $49 34d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 39d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 40d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 61d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 71d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $18 72d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 79d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 80d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 91d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 92d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 96d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 96d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $50 98d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $50 99d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 102d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 103d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 104d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 105d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 115d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $0 131d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 131d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 134d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 167d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 244d
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? SELL No 95¢ $1 545d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records