Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x654b…d007 weather 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%83W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$28
14 days+$15
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$19
other 4% −$3
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.1% -12.3% 93% 5% -8.2%
≤30d 92 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 92 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 9% -9.2%
all 92 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 9% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses83 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage16d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $44 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $44 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 97¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $49 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $23 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $24 17h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $48 18h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $47 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $14 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.07 · official $34.07 (match) · 256 history records