Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6547…82b3 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,250 (-14%) realized −$1,228 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$423
14 days+$423
30 days+$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1,232
tech 19% −$70
sports 14% −$176
other 11% +$90
finance 7% +$198
economics 3% −$10
crypto 3% −$111
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 75% 50% +0.6%
≤30d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 75% 50% +0.6%
≤90d 13 -23.5% -30.8% 46% 31% -9.2%
all 42 -18.7% -26.5% 55% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 33% -23.1%
10% -33.5% 17% -30.5%
15% -39.9% 14% -37.2%
20% -45.8% 5% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$109 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage108d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $901 +$45 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $876 +$43 +5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $607 +$235 +39%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $780 −$114 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$22 +213%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $537 +$183 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 +$9 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Swiss National Bank decreases policy rate after March Meeting? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Mar 19 $258 −$258 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Mar 18 $255 +$3 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $95 +$15 +16%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $119 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 18 $117 −$111 -95%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $800 −$230 -29%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8) Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $92 +$37 +40%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 16 $208 −$89 -43%
Will "Holy Shit" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of Mar 11 $144 +$6 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $18 −$17 -90%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Mar 08 $103 +$9 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $952 −$952 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 07 $7 +$3 +48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $106 +$22 +21%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Mar 04 $18 +$3 +17%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Mar 04 $287 −$63 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 04 $308 −$21 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 03 $40 −$21 -53%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $10 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 01 $47 +$43 +93%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $10 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $946 2h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $901 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $449 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $166 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $300 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $561 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $296 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 99¢ $843 25h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 70¢ $607 31h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 55¢ $666 31h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $70 33h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $710 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a BUY 21¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 99¢ $721 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $76 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $66 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 73¢ $537 3d
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 17¢ $258 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.73 · official $269.01 · 120 history records