Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6540…5bf9 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$4
sports 8% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +19.7% +8.3% 47% 29% -10.4%
≤30d 17 +19.7% +8.3% 47% 29% -10.4%
≤90d 17 +19.7% +8.3% 47% 29% -10.4%
all 17 +19.7% +8.3% 47% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 29% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 24% -19.0%
15% -11.5% 18% -26.8%
20% -20.2% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 70¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Sweden leading at halftime? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Under 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +42%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 +$11 +543%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$3 -8%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $108 −$16 -15%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $19 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $29 12m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 12m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $6 12m
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 47m
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $2 47m
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $8 58m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 70¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL No 44¢ $5 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $5 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $15 6h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 77¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 69¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? SELL No 73¢ $43 20h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY No 85¢ $50 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.37 · official $23.39 (match) · 71 history records