Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x653e…bbc0 sports 832 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47,535 (-18%) realized −$47,192 · open −$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%337W / 491L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1,966est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$773
7 days−$4,089
14 days−$5,900
30 days−$10,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$48,258
other 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.9% -16.7% 38% 34% -43.6%
≤30d 112 +3.6% -6.3% 42% 37% -27.3%
≤90d 354 -15.9% -23.9% 36% 32% -27.9%
all 828 -12.8% -21.1% 41% 38% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 38% -25.9%
10% -28.7% 34% -33.0%
15% -35.6% 29% -39.5%
20% -41.9% 23% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$292 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$1,220
Realized−$47,192
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses337 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,966
Open positions4
Markets (closed)828 / 832
History coverage328d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 33¢ 31¢ $664 $616 −$47 (-7%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ 48¢ $331 $334 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 46¢ 46¢ $270 $268 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 17¢ 0¢ $299 $1 −$298 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $79 +$50 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $335 +$198 +59%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $89 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $888 −$879 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $397 +$20 +5%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $658 −$643 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $1,690 −$1,690 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $314 −$303 -96%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $106 +$576 +545%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,226 +$1,113 +50%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $149 −$145 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $170 +$73 +43%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $211 −$211 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $177 −$175 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $539 −$539 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $43 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $74 +$164 +222%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $87 +$194 +222%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $1,703 −$1,699 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $300 +$374 +125%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $159 −$159 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $18 +$10 +56%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 09 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $390 −$380 -97%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $331 +$905 +273%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $97 +$210 +216%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,123 +$537 +48%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $132 −$18 -14%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $447 −$447 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $2,101 −$2,094 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $139 +$448 +323%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $415 −$413 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $285 −$281 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority (BO3) - European Pro Jun 05 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $260 −$254 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $343 +$149 +43%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $27 +$7 +26%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $575 −$575 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $626 −$615 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $4 13m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $79 25m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $88 28m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $87 43m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 44m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $1 45m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL DXA Esports 18¢ $5 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $262 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $7 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $82 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $86 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $7 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 18¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $82 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $84 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $16 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.52 · official $1,219.52 (match) · 3207 history records