Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x653a…108d other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-27%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$10
sports 31% +$2
crypto 11% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.9% -32.1% 11% 11% -34.1%
≤30d 9 -24.9% -32.1% 11% 11% -34.1%
≤90d 9 -24.9% -32.1% 11% 11% -34.1%
all 9 -24.9% -32.1% 11% 11% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.1% 11% -34.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 11% -40.4%
15% -44.5% 11% -46.1%
20% -50.0% 11% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.23 · official $11.23 (match) · 25 history records