Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6539…23ad other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,552 (+6%) realized +$1,348 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate97%103W / 3L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$209
economics 21% +$216
other 19% +$465
politics 15% +$671
tech 13% +$160
crypto 6% −$57
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 6 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 17% -4.3%
≤90d 26 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 12% -5.1%
all 106 +3.1% -6.7% 97% 6% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 6% -3.3%
10% -15.6% 2% -12.6%
15% -23.8% 2% -21.0%
20% -31.3% 2% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$123 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.98 per $1 lost it wins $4.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$5,805
Realized+$1,348
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses103 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)106 / 129
History coverage600d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $450 $472 +$22 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $383 $422 +$40 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $400 $420 +$20 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $348 $371 +$23 (+7%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $300 $357 +$57 (+19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $350 $356 +$6 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $341 $345 +$4 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $270 $276 +$6 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $250 $261 +$11 (+5%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $220 $226 +$6 (+3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $200 $211 +$12 (+6%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $190 $199 +$9 (+5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 83¢ $230 $199 −$31 (-14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+5%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 29 $350 +$8 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 29 $200 +$6 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 10 $150 +$15 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 10 $200 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 10 $302 +$42 +14%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 28 $240 +$7 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 24 $200 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 21 $150 +$13 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 May 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 21 $200 +$10 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 21 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $200 +$14 +7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 12 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 07 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 07 $300 +$8 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $300 +$15 +5%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $300 +$6 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $200 +$3 +2%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $200 +$6 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $250 +$21 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $170 +$3 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $350 +$3 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $520 +$4 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $300 +$24 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? Mar 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $100 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 21 $200 +$5 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Feb 20 $100 −$43 -43%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $300 +$3 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 18 $200 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 18 $200 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 18 $300 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 18 $300 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $400 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 13 $400 +$9 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Feb 12 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 11 $50 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 31 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 31 $200 +$7 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $200 +$36 +18%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $400 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $150 3h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $200 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 3h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 92¢ $50 3h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $206 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 BUY No 97¢ $300 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY Yes 93¢ $301 3h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $50 29d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $150 31d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 31d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $96 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 99¢ $118 34d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 38d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 84¢ $100 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $200 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $151 45d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $150 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $116 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $102 45d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $100 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,805.24 · official $5,806.52 (match) · 528 history records