Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6538…efb9 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+14%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$88
14 days−$95
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$58
other 37% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.6% -34.5% 29% 29% -30.9%
≤30d 47 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 43% +1.7%
≤90d 47 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 43% +1.7%
all 47 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 43% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 43% +1.7%
10% -17.2% 40% -8.1%
15% -25.2% 40% -16.9%
20% -32.5% 40% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage23d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $29 +$17 +59%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $24 −$4 -15%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$10 -49%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $30 +$5 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $63 −$42 -66%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $14 +$19 +129%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 −$10 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$35 +228%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$15 +145%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$23 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $23 +$12 +52%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$21 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $33 −$5 -16%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 +$9 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 +$25 +351%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +283%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $58 +$32 +56%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $11 +$10 +87%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $80 +$120 +151%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$39 +194%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $19 +$20 +103%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $20 +$20 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $21 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $11 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $20 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 7h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $21 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $24 7h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $35 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $28 20h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 25h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $9 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 25h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $10 25h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $33 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $14 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $51 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records