Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6538…9392 politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$473 (+5%) realized +$449 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$143
world 43% +$41
crypto 3% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.7% +7.4% 100% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 25% -7.1%
≤90d 8 +16.9% +5.8% 88% 62% -2.3%
all 33 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 45% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 45% -8.9%
10% -19.3% 33% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 27% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 18% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$2,720
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions14
Markets (closed)33 / 47
History coverage115d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,436 $1,394 −$43 (-3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $504 $543 +$39 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 92¢ 92¢ $276 $274 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $133 $152 +$19 (+14%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $77 $81 +$4 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 81¢ 80¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 90¢ 96¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+6%)
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $13 $17 +$5 (+36%)
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 95¢ 77¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 93¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 28 $19 +$7 +36%
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French pre Jun 25 $93 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $206 −$2 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $74 +$4 +5%
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia May 29 $1 $0 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $85 +$13 +15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $84 +$16 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 29 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Mar 29 $65 +$47 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 25 $6 +$31 +525%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 25 $112 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 21 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 21 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 21 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? Mar 17 $488 +$148 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 81¢ $81 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $276 1h
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presid SELL No 96¢ $24 4h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $48 5h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French SELL No 97¢ $26 6h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $3 8h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French BUY No 96¢ $20 9h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $48 11h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $48 12h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $48 12h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 98¢ $19 12h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 98¢ $44 12h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 98¢ $21 12h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 94¢ $204 12h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 97¢ $48 13h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 97¢ $48 13h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $145 13h
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presid BUY No 93¢ $28 13h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 97¢ $48 14h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 96¢ $53 14h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 96¢ $15 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 96¢ $5 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre SELL No 96¢ $9 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $58 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $18 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $8 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $90 15h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $56 16h
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 90¢ $14 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,719.79 · official $2,718.70 (match) · 467 history records