Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x6536…f1d2 crypto 335 markets active 2h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$171 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%118W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$231
14 days−$120
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$210
other 14% −$90
sports 11% −$221
world 0% −$27
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -50.3% -55.0% 5% 5% -75.2%
≤30d 116 -6.5% -15.4% 26% 22% -3.4%
≤90d 124 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 25% -2.5%
all 326 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 29% -11.0%
10% -26.1% 23% -19.5%
15% -33.2% 19% -27.3%
20% -39.8% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses118 / 208
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)326 / 335
History coverage702d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 77¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+97%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+199%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -83%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -88%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$2 -10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $14 −$9 -66%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$15 -73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 +$15 +712%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$25 -69%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1115%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $2 +$32 +1565%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl BUY 7¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 26h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 27h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 27h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 40h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 40h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.80 · official $64.26 · 852 history records