Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6535…dd25 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-9%) realized −$93 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$55
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$64
other 9% −$32
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.7% -30.1% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 64 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% -23.0%
≤90d 64 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% -23.0%
all 64 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 30% -23.0%
10% -31.0% 27% -30.4%
15% -37.6% 25% -37.1%
20% -43.7% 23% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 45
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Noskova 73¢ 81¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Errani/Paolini 76¢ 81¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Polina Iatcenko 57¢ 58¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) Jun 22 $39 −$1 -3%
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $103 −$3 -3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Broady vs. Vasilev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 17 $84 −$3 -3%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$6 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $8 +$4 +53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +123%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $1 +$1 +129%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -97%
Bahrain leading at halftime? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -97%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +101%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Cattolica: Luka Mikrut vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
Bratislava: Alex Molcan vs Petr Brunclik Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $7 +$11 +154%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $1 +$1 +60%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-2.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Osijek: Briana Szabo vs Sara Barbaric Jun 04 $4 +$1 +20%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Zidansek vs. Hercog: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $40 −$1 -3%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $25 +$13 +51%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs eternal premium (+1.5) Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Polina Iatcenko 57¢ $20 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 76¢ $29 1h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) BUY Jovic 51¢ $39 11h
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) BUY Noskova 73¢ $60 11h
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $54 33h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $10 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 26¢ $1 6d
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 52¢ $4 7d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $7 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $10 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $4 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 57¢ $10 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $5 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $5 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 64¢ $5 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 66¢ $2 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $1 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 22¢ $6 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $10 8d
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 51¢ $1 8d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $84 9d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $3 10d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.65 · official $271.66 (match) · 146 history records