Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6534…1762 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 33% $0
economics 13% $0
tech 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage107d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 07 $213 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 15h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 30d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 31d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 40d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 40d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 45d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 46d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $106 49d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $106 49d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 70d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $107 76d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $107 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $107 81d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $107 81d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $106 84d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 85d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 85d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $107 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $107 94d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $107 100d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $107 101d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $107 104d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $107 104d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 100¢ $107 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records