Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6534…8d86 world 36 markets active 6d ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 9% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage442d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 21 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $35 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records