Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6534…4700 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,053 (-12%) realized −$1,847 · open +$794
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days−$308
14 days−$308
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$293
sports 16% −$988
crypto 7% −$248
culture 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 29% 0% -22.1%
≤30d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 29% 0% -22.1%
≤90d 9 +8.5% -1.9% 33% 11% -26.8%
all 52 -52.7% -57.2% 23% 13% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 13% -35.1%
10% -61.3% 10% -41.3%
15% -65.0% 10% -47.0%
20% -68.5% 8% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$64 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$3,184
Realized−$1,847
Unrealized+$794
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage127d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1,790 $2,149 +$359 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $600 $1,035 +$435 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 −$19 -39%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $250 −$64 -26%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,400 −$173 -12%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $190 −$190 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Apr 11 $10 +$35 +354%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $196 −$11 -6%
Will Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? Mar 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $776 +$474 +61%
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? Mar 15 $350 −$324 -92%
Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $290 +$60 +21%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-15? Mar 14 $200 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Feb 27 $30 −$28 -95%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Feb 27 $40 −$37 -94%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Feb 27 $20 −$18 -88%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Feb 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 27 $30 +$31 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 27 $23 +$24 +105%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 23 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5PM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 22 $200 +$77 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8AM ET Feb 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Feb 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $593 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $113 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $186 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $250 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $46 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 77d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 77d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 77d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 77d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $192 104d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $185 104d
Will Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 104d
Nuggets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 22¢ $10 104d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 104d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $400 104d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $400 104d
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $500 104d
Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $100 104d
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 104d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,250 104d
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 104d
Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $350 104d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 104d
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $350 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,184.29 · official $3,184.30 (match) · 223 history records