Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6532…1c52 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$6
other 18% +$14
politics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -17.0% -24.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 15 -8.0% -16.8% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 48 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 2% -8.3%
10% -14.3% 2% -17.1%
15% -22.6% 2% -25.1%
20% -30.2% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 79¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $97 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $15 −$3 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Dec 13 $0 $0 -10%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $4 +$14 +344%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $32 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $40 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $35 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $37 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.08 · official $33.18 (match) · 129 history records