Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6530…92d1 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,373 (+13%) realized +$4,373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$88
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$5,098
crypto 8% +$18
sports 6% −$909
tech 1% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 44% +3.4%
≤30d 24 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 42% -17.1%
≤90d 24 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 42% -17.1%
all 59 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 41% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 41% +2.5%
10% -20.8% 31% -7.3%
15% -28.4% 20% -16.3%
20% -35.4% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$77 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage207d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$3 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $121 +$31 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$21 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $277 +$91 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $253 −$250 -99%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $786 −$786 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $200 +$124 +62%
LoL: Los Ratones vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 24 $50 −$50 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 31 $3,210 −$388 -12%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $4,883 +$1,791 +37%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $11,083 +$3,702 +33%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $8,387 −$1 -0%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $170 −$170 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $50 +$46 +92%
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $69 +$134 +194%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 05 $211 −$63 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 01 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 27 $183 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 27 $214 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Nov 27 $198 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9AM ET Nov 26 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 26 $60 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 26 $22 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 26 $37 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 26 $217 +$26 +12%
XRP Up or Down - November 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 26 $25 −$5 -20%
XRP Up or Down - November 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $60 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 416 history records