Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x6530…e127
sports · 317 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$121 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$110 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$158
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses109 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions61
Markets (closed)255 / 317
History coverage935d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 61 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$14
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 33¢ 43¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 75¢ 79¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 36¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 75¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 47¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 60¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 58¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +117%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -25%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $6 +$3 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -67%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $7 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1 $0 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$26
other 26% −$71
politics 13% −$24
world 5% +$9
crypto 2% −$3
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% +$4
finance 0% −$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY No 19¢ $0 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 56m
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 60¢ $2 3h
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 60¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 10h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $2 10h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +8.5% -1.8% 58% 42% -4.9%
≤30d 193 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 33% -11.5%
≤90d 202 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 33% -18.5%
all 255 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 29% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 29% -10.8%
10% -25.4% 23% -19.3%
15% -32.6% 20% -27.1%
20% -39.2% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.01 · official $157.41 (match) · 919 history records