Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x6530…54d6 weather 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+4%) realized +$85 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%96W / 63L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$56
14 days+$60
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$40
weather 35% +$36
world 30% +$5
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +25.0% +13.1% 89% 56% +3.5%
≤30d 19 -5.3% -14.4% 68% 53% +0.3%
≤90d 37 -27.7% -34.6% 54% 46% -3.8%
all 159 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 40% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 40% -5.6%
10% -24.0% 30% -14.6%
15% -31.3% 22% -22.9%
20% -38.1% 17% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses96 / 63
Open positions26
Markets (closed)159 / 185
History coverage136d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $245 $243 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? No 12¢ 48¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+304%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.22 (High) in 2026? No 26¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 +$2 +53%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $195 +$34 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $160 +$15 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $1 $0 +26%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 09 $1 +$1 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 15 $1 $0 +29%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +18%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $1 $0 +15%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 24? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.16 (Low) in 2026? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on February 27? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 26? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 24? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 27? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 28? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $245 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $180 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $144 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 40h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 65¢ $2 23d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 23d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 23d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 23d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.30 · official $292.30 (match) · 390 history records