Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x652f…bc41 weather 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-1%) realized −$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%178W / 84L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,464
7 days−$805
14 days−$275
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$131
weather 33% −$409
world 1% +$39
crypto 1% −$29
other 0% +$9
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 30% -12.2%
≤30d 109 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 262 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 42% -9.9%
all 262 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 42% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 19% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 12% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$46 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses178 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage58d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $79 −$54 -69%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $74 +$26 +36%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $63 +$10 +16%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $88 +$3 +4%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $496 −$291 -59%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,175 −$911 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $497 −$205 -41%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $618 +$33 +5%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $766 +$40 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $194 −$160 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $629 +$9 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $152 +$9 +6%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $1,454 +$114 +8%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $672 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $372 −$161 -43%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $207 −$8 -4%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $162 +$8 +5%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $165 +$35 +21%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $446 +$109 +24%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $306 +$50 +16%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $307 +$20 +6%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $1,088 +$37 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $181 +$9 +5%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $561 +$39 +7%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $612 +$75 +12%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $240 +$24 +10%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $380 +$20 +5%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau Jun 10 $308 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $114 +$17 +15%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 10 $476 +$24 +5%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $96 +$3 +3%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $565 +$34 +6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $548 +$31 +6%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $253 +$51 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $296 +$40 +13%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 09 $560 +$40 +7%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $540 +$30 +6%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $360 +$33 +9%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $448 −$110 -24%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $281 +$19 +7%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $526 +$38 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $297 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $43 +$6 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $197 −$55 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $27 +$2 +9%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $261 −$103 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Stefano Napolitano 28¢ $24 41m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $100 50m
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 89¢ $65 1h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 89¢ $13 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 99¢ $74 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 73¢ $74 1h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin SELL Svyatoslav Gulin 99¢ $91 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 82¢ $7 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 82¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 80¢ $36 1h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 95¢ $44 1h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 96¢ $44 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli SELL Alexis Galarneau 97¢ $47 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 96¢ $19 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Alexis Galarneau 83¢ $40 1h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif SELL Raluca Serban 4¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Raluca Serban 14¢ $4 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $20 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 77¢ $16 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 58¢ $36 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 43¢ $27 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 28¢ $149 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 88¢ $303 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 75¢ $150 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 31¢ $19 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 38¢ $10 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 39¢ $188 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 39¢ $46 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 95¢ $381 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 95¢ $485 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 883 history records