Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x652e…4a94 other 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+3%) realized +$178 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%111W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$62
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$107
sports 37% −$168
weather 7% +$6
finance 6% +$5
politics 3% −$18
crypto 2% −$45
world 1% +$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +32.2% +19.6% 35% 35% -31.1%
≤30d 123 -5.0% -14.1% 27% 24% -17.0%
≤90d 315 +2.4% -7.4% 35% 30% -9.8%
all 315 +2.4% -7.4% 35% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 30% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 24% -18.4%
15% -24.3% 20% -26.3%
20% -31.8% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses111 / 204
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions6
Markets (closed)315 / 323
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $19 $24 +$6 (+30%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+125%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +246%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +162%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $0 $0 -30%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $0 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $0 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $0 $0 +148%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $0 $0 -62%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$18 -34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $40 −$25 -63%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 57 million views on day 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $16 −$9 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$3 -36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 02 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $30 +$4 +12%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $115 +$25 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $22 −$7 -34%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $16 −$9 -52%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 02 $36 +$5 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $8 −$2 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
between 37 and 39 million view Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 31 $1 −$1 -73%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 30 $1 +$2 +242%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 49m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 55m
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 59m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $0 59m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $1 59m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $4 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 29¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.63 · official $50.63 · 3500 history records