Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x652d…46b3
weather · 220 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$711 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$694 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized+$694
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses71 / 135
Open positions21
Markets (closed)206 / 220
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day593.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$694
14 days+$694
30 days+$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 23¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+268%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+153%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+364%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? No 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 13 $45 −$72 -159%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $45 −$72 -159%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $61 −$73 -120%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $64 −$71 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$12 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $35 −$13 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$128 +450%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$311 +1424%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$348 +1092%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $44 −$10 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +42.3% +28.7% 34% 29% +2.6%
≤30d 206 +42.3% +28.7% 34% 29% +2.6%
≤90d 206 +42.3% +28.7% 34% 29% +2.6%
all 206 +42.3% +28.7% 34% 29% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover593.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.7% 29% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here +16.4% 25% -7.2%
15% +5.2% 23% -16.2%
20% -5.1% 19% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.76 · official $71.76 (match) · 3500 history records