Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x652b…f5c2
world · 51 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$2,527 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,206 · open +$305
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,256
Realized+$2,206
Unrealized+$305
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions59
Markets (closed)36 / 51
History coverage56d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 59 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,014
7 days+$1,048
14 days+$1,048
30 days+$1,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $1,463 $1,704 +$240 (+16%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $1,379 $1,540 +$161 (+12%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 58¢ 75¢ $413 $527 +$115 (+28%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 40¢ 23¢ $284 $165 −$119 (-42%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $126 $94 −$32 (-25%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 89¢ 53¢ $103 $61 −$42 (-41%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 54¢ $11 $59 +$48 (+435%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $43 $38 −$4 (-10%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Down 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes 36¢ 45¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $56 $6 −$50 (-89%)
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2876%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1035%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+894%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+881%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+573%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+457%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+253%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+163%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+137%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+137%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+124%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $20 +$57 +280%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $248 −$90 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $150 +$276 +184%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $76 +$175 +230%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $53 +$10 +18%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,305 +$183 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $713 +$269 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $814 +$144 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $560 −$38 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $66 −$9 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $37 +$16 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 +$65 +204%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $1,174 −$74 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 25 $799 +$113 +14%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 25 $2,604 +$377 +14%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2,432 +$1,794 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $3,551 −$1,260 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $2,202 −$40 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $1,763 +$284 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12AM ET Apr 19 $28 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6PM ET Apr 19 $28 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8PM ET Apr 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11AM ET Apr 18 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9AM ET Apr 17 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET Apr 17 $13 +$10 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 73% +$1,577
tech 13% +$313
other 13% +$609
crypto 1% −$31
finance 0% +$49
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 37¢ $34 29m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 35¢ $9 32m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 35¢ $5 33m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 40¢ $3 33m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 35¢ $2 34m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 35¢ $2 35m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 40¢ $7 35m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 40¢ $26 35m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 40¢ $7 35m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 10¢ $20 39m
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42m
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 4¢ $4 49m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $158 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 30¢ $23 14h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 30¢ $3 15h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 30¢ $4 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $156 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +87.5% +69.6% 64% 64% +13.7%
≤30d 14 +87.5% +69.6% 64% 64% +13.7%
≤90d 36 +19.0% +7.6% 50% 50% +1.1%
all 36 +19.0% +7.6% 50% 50% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 50% +1.1%
10% -2.7% 31% -8.6%
15% ← realistic here -12.1% 31% -17.4%
20% -20.7% 22% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,255.92 · official $4,255.92 (match) · 1253 history records