Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x652a…d7b2 crypto 839 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (901 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,829 (+10%) realized +$3,834 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%443W / 600L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day900.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (901 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1043 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -2.1%
≤30d 1043 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -2.1%
≤90d 1043 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -2.1%
all 1043 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover900.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 38% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 33% -11.5%
15% -36.6% 26% -20.0%
20% -42.8% 22% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$15 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$3,834
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses443 / 600
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1043 / 839
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day900.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 28¢ 24¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $63 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $140 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.56 · official $261.97 · 3500 history records