Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6528…2dce sports 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$216 (-1%) realized −$195 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%105W / 60L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$508
14 days+$1,491
30 days+$1,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,143
other 38% −$2,610
crypto 0% +$29
world 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.7% +1.0% 64% 64% +2.5%
≤30d 37 -3.8% -13.0% 62% 62% +6.8%
≤90d 105 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 62% -3.9%
all 165 -4.3% -13.4% 64% 62% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 62% -10.8%
10% -21.7% 51% -19.4%
15% -29.3% 33% -27.2%
20% -36.2% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$165 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses105 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage172d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $98 $77 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $596 +$155 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $117 +$14 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$234 +234%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 −$292 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $180 +$319 +178%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,011 +$364 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $157 +$29 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $133 +$23 +17%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$33 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,079 +$507 +47%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $494 +$585 +118%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $100 +$61 +61%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $380 +$153 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $100 +$107 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $511 +$62 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 27 $100 +$28 +28%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $100 +$78 +78%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $325 +$90 +28%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $287 +$38 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $205 +$82 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 May 23 $160 +$44 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $161 +$99 +61%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $100 −$97 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $200 +$161 +81%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $152 +$48 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $73 +$80 +110%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $580 −$571 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $351 −$351 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $98 −$96 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $98 +$56 +57%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $140 +$264 +188%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $143 −$142 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline Apr 22 $99 +$35 +36%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 20 $78 +$98 +125%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $99 −$98 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $166 +$94 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $461 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $135 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $117 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $180 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 85¢ $1,297 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $539 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 70¢ $1,056 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $22 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $1,372 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $100 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $100 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 83¢ $157 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $133 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 74¢ $979 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $100 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 45¢ $344 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.39 · official $217.39 (match) · 286 history records