Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6528…b5a1 crypto 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (383 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$420 (+4%) realized +$409 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%348W / 168L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day383.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$396
other 0% +$11
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (383 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 516 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 65% -6.3%
≤30d 516 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 65% -6.3%
≤90d 516 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 65% -6.3%
all 516 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 65% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover383.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 65% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -15.3%
15% -28.5% 9% -23.5%
20% -35.5% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$409
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses348 / 168
Open positions2
Markets (closed)516 / 518
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day383.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 40¢ 50¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$30 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.05 · official $49.05 (match) · 2448 history records