Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6522…5ab3 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$50 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$205
other 10% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 50% -7.9%
≤30d 16 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 50% -7.9%
≤90d 16 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 50% -7.9%
all 16 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 50% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 31% -16.7%
15% -23.9% 6% -24.8%
20% -31.3% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$65 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $430 +$46 +11%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $196 −$4 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $161 −$321 -199%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $713 −$34 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $39 −$12 -30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $151 +$12 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $264 +$91 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $117 −$17 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $131 −$2 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $82 +$22 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 +$2 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $90 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $180 +$19 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $252 +$70 +28%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $160 1m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $63 1m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $10 2m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $8 2m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $164 3m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $60 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $4 6m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $35 6m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $13 6m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 13¢ $1 28m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $18 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $14 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 69¢ $110 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 70¢ $76 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $191 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $86 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $11 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $79 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $70 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 59¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 59¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.17 (match) · 105 history records