Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6521…b6ee other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
other 28% −$1
politics 25% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 44 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage332d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $68 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $3 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $14 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on Aug Aug 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $8 $0 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 29 $62 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $20 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $13 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $32 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $36 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $36 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $17 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $17 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $33 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $35 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $35 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $17 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records