Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x651e…cfb4 sports 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-6%) realized −$51 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%113W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$4
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$83
other 8% +$3
crypto 8% −$11
weather 1% −$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 46% -10.4%
≤30d 121 -16.2% -24.1% 45% 40% -15.0%
≤90d 268 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 38% -16.6%
all 268 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 38% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 38% -16.6%
10% -26.6% 33% -24.6%
15% -33.7% 29% -31.9%
20% -40.2% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses113 / 155
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)268 / 273
History coverage57d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 56¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $112 −$18 -16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$5 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $43 +$20 +47%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 +$8 +22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 −$11 -28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$9 +21%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $19 +$6 +33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +126%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $3 $0 -16%
Set 1 Winner: Maksimovic vs Gagliardo Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 +$2 +103%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 +$4 +283%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 +$2 +81%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +143%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $2 +$2 +110%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $1 +$2 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $41 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Mor BUY 26¢ $4 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $44 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 20¢ $11 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $25 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $26 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $39 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $56 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $51 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain BUY 27¢ $3 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $43 31h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $25 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 46h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $9 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $29 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $8 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.25 · official $43.03 · 614 history records