Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x651b…3b4e world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% $0
sports 2% +$1
other 1% $0
weather 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage489d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $32 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 04 $8 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $31 41m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $32 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $31 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $24 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $7 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $31 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $28 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records