Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x651a…d4ff world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
politics 24% −$8
sports 15% $0
other 9% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$2
weather 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 77 -2.9% -12.1% 35% 1% -9.8%
all 95 -3.9% -13.0% 41% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage527d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $116 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $119 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $76 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $124 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $86 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $43 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $77 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2 $0 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $36 17h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $36 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $36.33 · 403 history records