Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x6517…438f crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+7%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$19
other 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 69% +1.3%
≤30d 16 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 69% +1.3%
≤90d 16 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 69% +1.3%
all 16 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 69% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 69% +1.3%
10% +4.1% 69% -8.4%
15% -6.0% 56% -17.2%
20% -15.2% 44% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$16 +312%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.80 · official $8.80 (match) · 33 history records