Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
65 0x6512…4ea1 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$81 (+32%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +38.4% +25.2% 83% 83% +26.2%
≤30d 6 +38.4% +25.2% 83% 83% +26.2%
≤90d 6 +38.4% +25.2% 83% 83% +26.2%
all 6 +38.4% +25.2% 83% 83% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 83% +26.2%
10% +13.2% 83% +14.1%
15% +2.3% 67% +3.1%
20% -7.7% 33% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$35 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$55 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$9 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $40 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.56 · official $54.56 (match) · 12 history records