Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x6512…5291 sports 553 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 526d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,732 (+3%) realized +$14,423 · open −$4,691
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%287W / 249L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$27,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$592
14 days+$1,548
30 days+$1,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2,021
politics 35% +$5,611
sports 11% −$1,589
other 10% +$2,226
crypto 4% +$2,079
weather 1% +$231
tech 1% −$649
culture 0% −$117
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 39% 21% -34.5%
≤30d 48 +1.5% -8.1% 44% 33% +7.0%
≤90d 215 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 42% -11.2%
all 536 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 43% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -6.0%
10% -22.1% 36% -15.0%
15% -29.6% 30% -23.2%
20% -36.5% 26% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$192 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$27,141
Realized+$14,423
Unrealized−$4,691
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses287 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions17
Markets (closed)536 / 553
History coverage527d ⚠
Avg bet$567
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $5,005 $8,393 +$3,388 (+68%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $7,078 $7,368 +$291 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 82¢ 57¢ $5,643 $3,916 −$1,727 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1,732 $2,031 +$299 (+17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $5,005 $1,617 −$3,388 (-68%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1,042 $900 −$142 (-14%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $663 $884 +$220 (+33%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $660 $595 −$65 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $492 $521 +$29 (+6%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $248 $276 +$28 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $348 $265 −$83 (-24%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $123 $128 +$4 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 26¢ $92 $2 −$90 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes $46 $1 −$46 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $118 +$7 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$6 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$44 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $241 −$29 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $437 −$261 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $180 +$270 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $93 −$92 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $100 −$87 -87%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $696 +$1,483 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,116 +$372 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,303 +$497 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 02 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $435 +$65 +15%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $60 +$440 +733%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $544 −$544 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 26 $32 −$32 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 26 $183 −$89 -49%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $754 −$111 -15%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $176 +$76 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $412 +$188 +46%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,164 +$929 +80%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $111 +$37 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $19 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $55 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $6 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $89 25h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 26h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 26h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 26h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $47 26h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $135 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $681 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $99 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,018 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $25 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $85 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,141.32 · official $27,142.21 (match) · 3500 history records