Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

65 0x6511…d284 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$30 (-11%) realized −$33 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$20

7 days+$27

14 days+$27

30 days+$27

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-28.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+55.8%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+39.4%
≤30d	3	+55.8%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+39.4%
≤90d	16	-20.5%	-28.1%	44%	44%	-23.6%
all	16	-20.5%	-28.1%	44%	44%	-23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.1%	44%	-23.6%
10%	-35.0%	44%	-30.9%
15%	-41.3%	44%	-37.6%
20%	-47.0%	38%	-43.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late -42% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized−$33

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage234d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	11¢	$10	$14	+$4 (+39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$25	+$13	+53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	+$7	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey?	May 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18?	May 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?	May 03	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	May 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?	May 03	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?	May 03	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?	May 03	$20	−$20	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	May 03	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 29	$6	+$8	+146%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 19	$15	+$19	+128%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 18	$20	+$16	+79%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 18	$25	+$13	+51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$29	1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	77¢	$17	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	2d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	42d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	48d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	40¢	$6	49d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?	BUY Yes	9¢	$20	56d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	20¢	$15	58d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	58d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	43¢	$15	59d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	59d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	59d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	SELL Yes	53¢	$36	59d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	59d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	59d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	59d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?	SELL Yes	57¢	$38	59d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	59d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	37¢	$25	59d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$20	234d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.26 · official $52.26 (match) · 38 history records