Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x650b…4f90 sports 269 markets active 0h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-4%) realized −$48 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%131W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$46
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$18
sports 30% +$18
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$21
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 55% +9.7%
≤30d 61 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 51% +7.9%
≤90d 61 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 51% +7.9%
all 257 -13.3% -21.5% 51% 42% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -11.5%
10% -29.0% 32% -20.0%
15% -35.9% 25% -27.7%
20% -42.2% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses131 / 126
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)257 / 269
History coverage376d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$21 +42%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -84%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +61%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -68%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 1m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 52m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $72 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.75 · official $13.75 (match) · 557 history records