Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x650b…8bac other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3
other 34% +$4
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
all 43 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -8.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.19 per $1 lost it wins $5.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $78 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $75 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $36 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 21 $1 $0 -22%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 17 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $42 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $42 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $38 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records