Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x650a…8aea
other · 123 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$62 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage95d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $218 −$2 -1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $192 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $89 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $65 −$4 -7%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $144 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 22 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $59 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 20 $98 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 20 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $45 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $129 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $51 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$21
politics 23% −$10
sports 19% −$13
crypto 8% −$7
economics 6% −$3
finance 5% −$6
world 4% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 46m
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 8h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $45 9h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $45 13h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $45 13h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $46 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 22h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 26h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 27h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 35h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 35h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 42h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 43h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $7 2d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $57 5d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $57 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 53 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 114 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 122 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.31 · official $50.31 (match) · 423 history records