Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x650a…e1ae other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$470 (+16%) realized +$481 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$420
sports 28% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 60% 40% +7.0%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 60% 40% +7.0%
≤90d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 60% 40% +7.0%
all 10 -2.7% -12.0% 60% 40% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% +7.0%
10% -20.4% 20% -3.2%
15% -28.1% 20% -12.6%
20% -35.2% 20% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$58 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $150 +$13 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $447 +$233 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $177 −$175 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $651 +$33 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$37 -18%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $351 +$38 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $331 +$359 +109%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $150 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $447 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $177 34h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 95¢ $651 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $165 36h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $94 37h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $351 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $690 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $229 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.68 · official $388.68 (match) · 27 history records