Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6505…1fee sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$274
14 days−$202
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$40
other 8% +$25
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -16.6% -24.5% 51% 49% -15.0%
≤30d 182 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 182 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 52% -9.8%
all 182 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 52% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 52% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 43% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 36% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 26% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 82
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions5
Markets (closed)182 / 187
History coverage18d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ 61¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$73 +160%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $106 +$56 +53%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$41 +82%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$25 +125%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $47 +$19 +40%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $101 −$53 -53%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $197 +$36 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $152 +$46 +30%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $71 +$51 +71%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $43 +$46 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$16 +78%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $164 +$108 +66%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $101 −$100 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$34 +165%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $185 +$26 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$12 +7%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $161 +$60 +37%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ $30 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 6h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL KRÜ Spark 100¢ $102 6h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $20 7h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 89¢ $50 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 7h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner SELL Division One 100¢ $46 7h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 31¢ $31 7h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Division One 44¢ $20 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 44¢ $20 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL BESTIA 39¢ $0 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner SELL BESTIA 70¢ $20 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL BESTIA 39¢ $27 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 21¢ $15 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL KRÜ Spark 81¢ $34 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BESTIA 28¢ $5 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BESTIA 89¢ $10 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 8h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 48¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $66 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 69¢ $27 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 73¢ $20 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 100¢ $27 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 75¢ $20 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.35 · official $73.11 (match) · 475 history records