Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6504…cff6 crypto 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,252 (-8%) realized −$1,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%113W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,378
7 days−$4,360
14 days−$4,360
30 days−$4,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,626
sports 3% +$36
other 2% +$125
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -76.1% -78.4% 12% 10% -66.4%
≤30d 111 -76.1% -78.4% 12% 10% -66.4%
≤90d 162 -36.7% -42.7% 36% 31% -33.2%
all 225 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 46% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -18.2%
10% -24.0% 40% -26.0%
15% -31.4% 33% -33.2%
20% -38.1% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$51 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses113 / 112
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)225 / 229
History coverage94d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$104 +203%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$157 +154%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 32¢ $94 7m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 19¢ $20 58m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 23¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $155 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND W BUY 11¢ $21 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? AND BUY 7¢ $21 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $102 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 76¢ $55 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 36¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 36¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.86 · official $46.53 (match) · 788 history records