Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x64fb…e81c other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 293d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$544 (+28%) realized +$574 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$506
7 days+$506
14 days+$506
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,262
sports 22% −$215
culture 16% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +203.3% +174.4% 100% 100% +140.5%
≤30d 6 +85.3% +67.7% 67% 67% +102.1%
≤90d 15 +20.5% +9.0% 40% 40% +40.1%
all 20 +31.5% +19.0% 45% 45% +52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 45% +52.4%
10% +7.6% 45% +37.8%
15% -2.8% 40% +24.5%
20% -12.3% 40% +12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$56 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$574
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage293d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $56 +$26 (+88%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $102 +$324 +317%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $203 +$182 +90%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 11 $51 +$55 +109%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 11 $34 +$66 +196%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $14 +$26 +194%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $26 +$79 +301%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $176 −$171 -97%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $210 +$790 +376%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $150 +$169 +113%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 08 $300 +$100 +33%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Texans vs. Rams Sep 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 92¢ $142 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL No 100¢ $385 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 95¢ $133 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 95¢ $147 1h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY Yes $20 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 52¢ $203 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $46 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $20 21d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 47¢ $51 37d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 41d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $6 41d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 41d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 41d
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $5 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $3 41d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $4 41d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 41d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 41d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.36 · official $218.36 (match) · 69 history records