Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x64f4…b38e
sports · 26 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$20 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$99
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage15d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days+$287
14 days−$210
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 35¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 39¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 52¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Team Falcons 50¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 32¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 29¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 31¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 29¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 44¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Natus Vincere 40¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Diana Shnaider 62¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Belinda Bencic 54¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Anna Kalinskaya 51¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 27¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$271 +265%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $88 +$70 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$142 +139%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$88 +87%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $131 −$128 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $202 +$137 +68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $97 +$458 +474%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $139 −$136 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 05 $18 +$31 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $76 −$74 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $102 +$107 +105%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $102 +$98 +97%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek Jun 01 $99 +$126 +127%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $107 +$213 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $102 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 27¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $244 17h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $88 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 41¢ $102 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $189 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $131 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $101 21h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $203 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $102 25h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $102 25h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $153 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $97 40h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 59¢ $202 40h
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $139 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 29¢ $76 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 62¢ $202 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 52¢ $101 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 36¢ $18 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 51¢ $101 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 48¢ $102 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 27¢ $102 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 50¢ $102 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 54¢ $152 13d
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek BUY Kostyuk 44¢ $97 14d
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek BUY Kostyuk 44¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 33¢ $102 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 32¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.7% +19.2% 46% 46% +7.0%
≤30d 25 +16.5% +5.4% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +16.5% +5.4% 44% 44% -9.4%
all 25 +16.5% +5.4% 44% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 44% -9.4%
10% -4.7% 44% -18.1%
15% -13.9% 44% -26.0%
20% -22.3% 44% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.54 · official $98.57 (match) · 39 history records