Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64f3…34b6 crypto 381 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,906 (+5%) realized +$8,893 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%220W / 140L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$40,828
sports 30% −$1,172
world 7% +$12,892
crypto 6% −$561
other 6% +$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 34% -2.5%
≤30d 254 -17.7% -25.5% 54% 29% +14.2%
≤90d 360 +5.1% -4.9% 61% 38% +15.4%
all 360 +5.1% -4.9% 61% 38% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 38% +15.4%
10% -14.0% 29% +4.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.3% 24% -5.7%
20% -29.9% 21% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$110 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$4,265
Realized+$8,893
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses220 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions21
Markets (closed)360 / 381
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$510
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,120 $2,125 +$5 (+0%)
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 98¢ 99¢ $396 $398 +$1 (+0%)
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $361 $362 +$0 (+0%)
Will Johanito Wamytan be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 98¢ 97¢ $349 $345 −$4 (-1%)
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $205 $212 +$7 (+3%)
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $107 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Will Virginie Ruffenach be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 99¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score Yes 99¢ 100¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jean Pierre Djaïwé be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score Yes 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pascal Sawa be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 83¢ 85¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gil Brial be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolas Metzdorf be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $33 −$32 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 28 $1,015 +$59 +6%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $778 +$94 +12%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers Jun 28 $388 +$235 +61%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 28 $1,409 +$14 +1%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 28 $45 +$2 +3%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 28 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $17 +$3 +17%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $139 +$15 +11%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $3,739 +$798 +21%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $776 +$186 +24%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $83 +$17 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $56 +$6 +11%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $36 −$9 -24%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2,200 +$19 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2,258 +$39 +2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,056 +$144 +14%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $1,783 +$17 +1%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 26 $1,304 +$22 +2%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 26 $251 +$3 +1%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers Jun 26 $175 +$2 +1%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 26 $368 −$96 -26%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Jun 25 $1,276 −$46 -4%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 25 $2,042 +$57 +3%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $308 +$190 +62%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $720 +$275 +38%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 24 $223 +$3 +1%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 24 $931 +$8 +1%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 24 $979 +$25 +3%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 23 $164 +$40 +24%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $1,822 +$175 +10%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $1,765 +$33 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $118 +$180 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $26 −$21 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $890 +$69 +8%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $131 +$1 +1%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 21 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 21 $144 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $534 +$5 +1%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 21 $31 +$94 +306%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,586 +$10 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $694 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New BUY No 98¢ $20 23m
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $42 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 1h
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 1h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 1h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 1h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $33 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $7 1h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $329 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $9 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $43 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $43 1h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $43 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $24 1h
AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $54 2h
Will Johanito Wamytan be the next President of the Government of New C BUY No 99¢ $126 2h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 84¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,265.05 · official $4,265.05 (match) · 3500 history records