Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ef…a220 crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-4%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%41W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +10.6% +0.0% 56% 56% -9.0%
≤30d 86 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -15.7%
≤90d 86 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -15.7%
all 86 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -15.7%
10% -23.6% 47% -23.7%
15% -31.0% 41% -31.1%
20% -37.8% 37% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses41 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage20d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$25 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $92 +$56 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$50 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$37 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$2 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$28 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$39 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$44 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$36 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$74 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$29 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $58 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records