Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ed…4184 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$707 (-41%) realized −$709 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$169
14 days−$161
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 38% −$459
other 32% −$90
sports 22% −$153
crypto 8% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 27% 27% -44.2%
≤30d 15 -34.1% -40.3% 27% 27% -49.0%
≤90d 16 -38.2% -44.1% 25% 25% -50.0%
all 30 -33.1% -39.4% 43% 30% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 30% -50.1%
10% -45.2% 17% -54.9%
15% -50.5% 13% -59.2%
20% -55.4% 13% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$48 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage311d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 50¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $114 −$113 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 +$32 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $198 −$41 -21%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U Jun 23 $10 +$22 +218%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 1 Thailand? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 10 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 02 $250 +$30 +12%
LoL: JDG vs AL Sep 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8AM ET Sep 05 $20 +$6 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7AM ET Sep 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 6AM ET Sep 05 $20 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 5AM ET Sep 05 $8 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 5AM ET Sep 05 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 1AM ET Sep 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 4PM ET Sep 03 $40 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $83 36h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 40h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: BUY $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $157 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Bosnia-Herzegovina v BUY 24¢ $20 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs BUY 12¢ $10 4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs BUY $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 25¢ $10 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U BUY 31¢ $10 5d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $10 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $10 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $4 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $198 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $40 14d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $5 15d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $0 15d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $5 15d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $0 15d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 1 Thailand? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 18d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes $10 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 16¢ $200 137d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 25¢ $36 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.53 · official $51.53 (match) · 72 history records