Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ed…41b2 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$721 (-4%) realized −$729 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%76W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$146
14 days+$30
30 days−$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$664
other 3% −$99
crypto 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.6% -20.0% 75% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 106 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 49% -14.1%
≤90d 106 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 49% -14.1%
all 106 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 49% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 49% -14.1%
10% -22.9% 34% -22.3%
15% -30.4% 18% -29.8%
20% -37.2% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$119 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses76 / 30
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage29d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Team Resilience 21¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+376%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $67 +$21 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $206 +$9 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $395 +$104 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 +$10 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $282 +$15 +5%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $418 −$414 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $951 +$49 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $253 +$47 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$7 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $405 +$23 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $466 +$34 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $540 +$72 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $421 +$89 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $302 +$120 +40%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $199 +$55 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $187 −$187 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $221 +$143 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $198 −$73 -37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $171 +$45 +26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $27 +$12 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $73 +$5 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$9 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $83 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $87 +$13 +15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $113 −$112 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $77 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $26 +$74 +285%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $115 +$2 +2%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $95 +$19 +20%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $81 +$56 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $74 +$6 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $146 −$55 -38%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $350 −$347 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $86 +$102 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 88¢ $46 21m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 88¢ $42 21m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 66¢ $67 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 21¢ $2 57m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 86¢ $116 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $84 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 3d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $215 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 96¢ $192 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $14 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $15 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $26 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $4 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $0 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $200 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $499 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $130 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $395 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $297 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $217 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $65 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $418 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $230 4d
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $253 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $951 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 93¢ $93 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 89¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 326 history records