Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ec…931d sports 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$762 (-6%) realized −$803 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%167W / 383L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$331
14 days−$499
30 days−$1,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$792
other 25% −$547
crypto 1% −$81
world 0% −$60
politics 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 30% -20.9%
≤30d 382 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 30% -22.1%
≤90d 550 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 29% -20.9%
all 550 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 29% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 29% -20.9%
10% -24.4% 28% -28.5%
15% -31.7% 27% -35.4%
20% -38.4% 24% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$803
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses167 / 383
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions3
Markets (closed)550 / 553
History coverage55d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniel Altmaier 17¢ 40¢ $40 $93 +$53 (+132%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 35¢ 24¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 282 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru Jun 19 $4 $0 -11%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $20 +$38 +188%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $20 +$52 +253%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $41 +$105 +257%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Silva vs John Echeverria Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Louis Wessels Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana to win the second half? Jun 18 $20 +$38 +188%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $8 +$20 +240%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$48 +237%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $36 −$15 -42%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $20 +$27 +133%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $31 +$97 +317%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $31 +$45 +148%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $61 +$122 +199%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $21 +$113 +549%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 11¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 35¢ $25 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Ana Giraldi Requena 18¢ $3 5h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru SELL Ada Kumru 54¢ $4 5h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru BUY Ada Kumru 27¢ $4 7h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 34¢ $41 14h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 25¢ $14 17h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 17¢ $41 17h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $41 20h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 11¢ $31 20h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 59¢ $39 22h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 30¢ $20 22h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 34¢ $20 22h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 30¢ $72 24h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover $20 25h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 27¢ $20 25h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 26¢ $10 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 28¢ $31 28h
ITF Lourinha: Joao Silva vs John Echeverria BUY Joao Silva 15¢ $6 29h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 17¢ $8 29h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi $21 29h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 11¢ $21 30h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Louis Wessels BUY Louis Wessels 28¢ $8 32h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Iva Ivanova 34¢ $20 32h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 38h
Ghana to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 39h
Ghana to win the second half? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.49 · official $106.60 · 1027 history records