Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64e9…9324 sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,079 (+1%) realized +$1,085 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%80W / 43L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,334per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$1,210est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$552
7 days+$781
14 days−$3,558
30 days+$774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$50
other 12% +$724
world 1% +$264
crypto 0% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 36% -6.7%
≤30d 123 +7.0% -3.2% 65% 40% -9.1%
≤90d 123 +7.0% -3.2% 65% 40% -9.1%
all 123 +7.0% -3.2% 65% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 40% -9.1%
10% -12.5% 34% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -20.9% 28% -25.7%
20% -28.7% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,476) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$231 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses80 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,210
Open positions3
Markets (closed)123 / 127
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,334
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $170 −$8 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Phoenix Mercury 23¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $144 −$5 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $320 +$10 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $899 +$291 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $498 +$102 +20%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $738 −$738 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $832 +$215 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $800 −$332 -42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $363 +$102 +28%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$54 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $384 +$236 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 20 $10 +$22 +217%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $171 +$129 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $1,740 +$30 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $640 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $455 −$64 -14%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $710 +$14 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,557 +$114 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $129 −$31 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,924 +$170 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,230 +$482 +39%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $4,297 +$4 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $83 +$15 +18%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$10 -82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $770 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $211 +$92 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $315 +$185 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $322 +$184 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $78 +$22 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,326 −$296 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $285 +$31 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $323 −$253 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $348 +$237 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $545 −$250 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,896 −$3,306 -56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $106 +$94 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7,029 +$76 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 23¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 70¢ $139 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $144 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $11 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 66¢ $323 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 66¢ $7 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $289 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $9 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $899 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 15¢ $18 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 83¢ $498 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $738 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 79¢ $832 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA $58 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 41¢ $410 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $800 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $50 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $110 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.67 · official $209.60 (match) · 1347 history records